This project aimed to optimize the management of a flood protection asset by identifying the optimal course of decision making under high uncertainty. Testing the response of the asset can offer valuable insights that reduce such uncertainty and lead to reliable infrastructure. The Value of Information (VoI) scheme used in the project adopted a pre-posterior analysis in order to assess the information gain by testing and subsequent reduction of accepted risk. The analysis investigates the effect of implementing stress tests, monitoring and reinforcement of the asset. Ultimately, it quantifies their effect in terms of risk, which encompasses both the investment cost of each course of action as well as the accepted probability of failure and each consequences.

Key Points:

  • Value of Information
  • Bayesian inference
  • Risk analysis